For those of you attending the morning webinars, Steve didn't record this morning's session. He has decided to give you an additional session on the Monday following the last scheduled webinar, so although we don't have access to today's information, we will have another opportunity to learn.
Recognition goes to Dick in this afternoon's advanced training webinar--great trade today!
Wednesday, August 12, 2009
Tuesday, August 11, 2009
Avoid Overtrading
Steve has mentioned this before and reiterated it in yesterday's afternoon webinar. Overtrading in the middle of the day during choppy markets, or during low volume periods, will hurt your profits. (See my post from yesterday--I had to get back in the market during the late afternoon in order to make back what I gave up in two bad trades during the chop.)
Here are the 4 trades from this morning's session in the S&P 500 e-minis.
Were there more trades I could have taken? Probably one or two; but it's much more enjoyable and profitable to be patient, wait out the midday chop, then take a look at what may be setting up in the afternoon session.
After the market close:
I didn't take any other trades today. Steve and I spent some time discussing the webinars and video we are putting together, then I got busy shooting a couple of new airsoft guns with my 11-year-old son and just didn't spend much time watching the market. (By the way, having a friendly impromptu airsoft battle with a bunch of the neighborhood kids is a great way to have fun and bond with your own kids.)
There were a couple of trades I might have taken, but I missed them entirely or took a look at the market after the move was well underway. I refused to chase profits; I've done that one too many times before.
I'd rather walk away with my gains and wait until the session tomorrow morning, so I traded a total of only 35 minutes this morning, then spent a few minutes glancing at the market this afternoon. About 3-1/2 to 4 points in less than an hour of trading today--I really enjoy using Steve's methods.
I will not be posting my trades every day. I don't day trade every day. But I promise that when I do choose to post them, I will post the good, the bad and the ugly--winners and losers. No holding back, because the point is to help everyone learn something from the experience.
The lessons from yesterday and today?
1. Steer clear of midday choppiness.
2. Avoid overtrading.
3. Be patient.
4. Have fun!
Here are the 4 trades from this morning's session in the S&P 500 e-minis.
| Net Profit | |||||
| # | Type | Date/Time | Symbol | Price | Cum Net Prof |
| 1 | Buy | 8/11/2009 8:33 | ESU09 | $1,000.75 | $101.00 |
| Sell | 8/11/2009 8:35 | ESU09 | $1,001.00 | ||
| 2 | Sell | 8/11/2009 8:38 | ESU09 | $1,000.50 | $476.00 |
| Buy | 8/11/2009 8:40 | ESU09 | $999.50 | ||
| 3 | Sell | 8/11/2009 8:44 | ESU09 | $998.75 | $851.00 |
| Buy | 8/11/2009 8:48 | ESU09 | $997.00 | ||
| 4 | Sell | 8/11/2009 9:00 | ESU09 | $996.25 | $351.00 |
| Buy | 8/11/2009 9:01 | ESU09 | $995.50 | ||
| $1,779.00 |
Were there more trades I could have taken? Probably one or two; but it's much more enjoyable and profitable to be patient, wait out the midday chop, then take a look at what may be setting up in the afternoon session.
After the market close:
I didn't take any other trades today. Steve and I spent some time discussing the webinars and video we are putting together, then I got busy shooting a couple of new airsoft guns with my 11-year-old son and just didn't spend much time watching the market. (By the way, having a friendly impromptu airsoft battle with a bunch of the neighborhood kids is a great way to have fun and bond with your own kids.)
There were a couple of trades I might have taken, but I missed them entirely or took a look at the market after the move was well underway. I refused to chase profits; I've done that one too many times before.
I'd rather walk away with my gains and wait until the session tomorrow morning, so I traded a total of only 35 minutes this morning, then spent a few minutes glancing at the market this afternoon. About 3-1/2 to 4 points in less than an hour of trading today--I really enjoy using Steve's methods.
I will not be posting my trades every day. I don't day trade every day. But I promise that when I do choose to post them, I will post the good, the bad and the ugly--winners and losers. No holding back, because the point is to help everyone learn something from the experience.
The lessons from yesterday and today?
1. Steer clear of midday choppiness.
2. Avoid overtrading.
3. Be patient.
4. Have fun!
Monday, August 10, 2009
Today's Trades
Steve suggested I post the trades I did in the S&P 500 e-mini contracts today. You will notice that I was up about 3 points in the morning, then got impatient and gave it away during the light volume chop. In two trades I was stopped out with a 1-1/2 point loss each time.
I made it up in the afternoon to end the day up more than 6 points net of commissions. This is a report you can generate in TradeStation. If you want assistance finding and generating it, send Steve the request via email and he will cover it in the next webinar.
I made it up in the afternoon to end the day up more than 6 points net of commissions. This is a report you can generate in TradeStation. If you want assistance finding and generating it, send Steve the request via email and he will cover it in the next webinar.
| Net Profit & | |||||
| # | Type | Date/Time | Symbol | Price | Cum Net Prof |
| 1 | Sell | 8/10/2009 8:47 | ESU09 | $1,004.75 | $726.00 |
| Buy | 8/10/2009 8:48 | ESU09 | $1,003.25 | ||
| 2 | Buy | 8/10/2009 8:52 | ESU09 | $1,004.75 | $351.00 |
| Sell | 8/10/2009 8:56 | ESU09 | $1,005.50 | ||
| 3 | Sell | 8/10/2009 9:00 | ESU09 | $1,004.50 | $226.00 |
| Buy | 8/10/2009 9:00 | ESU09 | $1,004.00 | ||
| 4 | Buy | 8/10/2009 9:22 | ESU09 | $1,004.75 | $226.00 |
| Sell | 8/10/2009 9:25 | ESU09 | $1,005.25 | ||
| 5 | Sell | 8/10/2009 9:33 | ESU09 | $1,006.25 | $101.00 |
| Buy | 8/10/2009 9:37 | ESU09 | $1,006.00 | ||
| 6 | Sell | 8/10/2009 9:56 | ESU09 | $1,005.75 | ($774.00) |
| Buy | 8/10/2009 10:04 | ESU09 | $1,007.25 | ||
| 7 | Buy | 8/10/2009 10:04 | ESU09 | $1,007.25 | ($774.00) |
| Sell | 8/10/2009 10:18 | ESU09 | $1,005.75 | ||
| 8 | Sell | 8/10/2009 10:18 | ESU09 | $1,005.75 | $1,226.00 |
| Buy | 8/10/2009 11:30 | ESU09 | $1,003.25 | ||
| 9 | Sell | 8/10/2009 12:56 | ESU09 | $1,001.50 | $1,101.00 |
| Buy | 8/10/2009 13:22 | ESU09 | $999.25 | ||
| 10 | Buy | 8/10/2009 13:56 | ESU09 | $1,001.50 | $726.00 |
| Sell | 8/10/2009 14:03 | ESU09 | $1,003.00 | ||
| $3,135.00 |
Monday, July 27, 2009
Some quick notes from the training session this morning:
Use the 5-day Moving Average on your daily charts for clear exit signals. Set your stops below the 5-day MA.
Use the 8/8 crossover on daily and intraday charts to do the same thing.
Use stop-loss orders; stopping out is your pay day. The 5-period Moving Average is valid for all time frames, but for more flexibility on intraday charts use the Donchian channel to avoid getting stopped out too quickly.
Use stop-losses instead of taking profits quickly. Ride the bull as long as you can, because he will try to buck you off. The market maker is doing that: he'll take the price back down to stop you out before he takes the price up.
In addition to intraday trades for short-term profits, be sure to trade the intermediate chart. This will prevent you from missing nice trending trades, even when you can't sit and watch the market intraday.
Keep in mind that our double-beta ETFs are leveraged plays, up and down. Leverage is great when it's going your way, but set your stops and get out when reversals come.
Your position size should never put you in a situation to lose more than 1% of your portfolio. Plan your trade size and stop-loss orders accordingly.
Use an intraday chart even if you can’t get real-time data--the 8/8 crossover will give you nice signals on getting back into a trend.
Thursday, July 23, 2009
12th Straight Day
The NASDAQ rose for the 12th straight day today, gaining 47 points to close at 1973.60. The index is up an impressive 12.4% from its close of 1756.03 on July 10.
The Dow Jones Industrial Average rose 188 points in today's trading, retaking the 9000 level for the first time since January. The Dow closed today at 9069.29, a gain for the Big Board of almost 923 points since July 10, when it closed at 8146.52. That's a gain of 11.3% in nine trading sessions.
The QLD closed today at $44.42, up 26.5% from July 10. The DDM is up 23.8%, closing at $32.92. We recommend these double-beta ETFs for trading the market.
As Steve put it in this morning's commentary, "ride the bull for as long as possible by keeping stops underneath the rising 5 day moving average for short term trades, and an 8 or 10 day average for intermediate trend positions."
Wednesday, July 22, 2009
EBRI's Annual Retirement Confidence Survey
According to the Employee Benefit Research Institute (EBRI):
"Workers who say they are very confident about having enough money for a comfortable retirement this year hit the lowest level in 2009 (13 percent) since the Retirement Confidence Survey started asking the question in 1993, continuing a two-year decline. Retirees also posted a new low in confidence about having a financially secure retirement, with only 20 percent now saying they are very confident (down from 41 percent in 2007)."
EBRI also says less than half of those surveyed have any idea how much money they will need to retire comfortably:
"Many workers still do not have a good idea of how much they need to save for retirement. Only 44 percent of workers report they and/or their spouse have tried to calculate how much money they will need to have saved by the time they retire—and an equal proportion (44 percent) simply guess at how much they will need for a comfortable retirement."
Unfortunately, an astounding 53% have less than $25,000 in savings and investment. Fully 76% of those responding to the survey reported having less than $100,000 put away for retirement. So, regardless of how much they think they need, few respondents have much at all put aside for retirement.
There has never been a more urgent need for successful investing to rebuild the account values ravaged by last year's market decline.
Read the entire report at
http://www.ebri.org/pdf/briefspdf/EBRI_IB_4-2009_RCS1.pdf
Trade the Trend
Very powerful training session this morning. One point that hit home is we must trade with the trend. Fighting the trend is like swimming upstream in a swift river.
The question all investors need to answer for themselves is this: Which trend do I want to follow? Short-, intermediate- or long-term trend?
Steve showed us how to use the 5-day moving average and the price channel as stops in the current intermediate trend, and how the 5-day gives us a great exit point during the initial phase of this intermediate advance. The price channel will give us more lattitude when the short-term cycle chop begins.
The question all investors need to answer for themselves is this: Which trend do I want to follow? Short-, intermediate- or long-term trend?
Steve showed us how to use the 5-day moving average and the price channel as stops in the current intermediate trend, and how the 5-day gives us a great exit point during the initial phase of this intermediate advance. The price channel will give us more lattitude when the short-term cycle chop begins.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)