Friday, October 2, 2009

How bad was the 2007-2008 bear market?

"When equities bottomed in November 2008, the MSCI World index had fallen 55% –– a global loss of USD 21 trillion, or USD 21,000 for every individual in the developed world. This statement appears in the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2009. The Yearbook is a comprehensive and authoritative analysis of total returns since 1900 for stocks, bonds, cash, foreign exchange and inflation in 17 national stock markets and three worldwide indexes, covering Europe, North America, Asia, and Africa.

"In the Yearbook, the authors, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton, of London Business School point out that the last decade has been the lost decade for equity investors. Since 2000, the MSCI World index has lost a third of its value in real (inflation-adjusted) terms, while the major markets all gave negative returns of an annualized 
–4% to –6%."

Of course, the November 2008 low of about 7,450 wasn't the U.S. market low of the last two years--by March 9, 2009 the Dow Jones Industrial Average had dropped another 1,000 points to around 6,470. 

Read the entire articled at: 
http://docs.google.com/gview?a=v&q=cache:mxzWh0CxOJUJ:www.london.edu/newsandevents/pressreleases/pressreleases.do%3Fsection%3DEditRelease%26mode%3DgetAttachment%26releaseId%3D62%26attachmentID%3D54+worldwide+stock+market+losses&hl=en&gl=us&sig=AFQjCNHUAWkzCKkeJwKC_UUoceZUeEzChw

Many of you have been getting better results than those quoted here. Email us at support@TheMarketForecast.com and tell us how you did during the downturn.





Once more, something happening to our server... so I'll post end of day results here.
Thanks for your patience,
Steve






Thursday, October 1, 2009




Server's are still down. Here's the end of day charts.
Steve







With servers down right now, I'll up date the main INDU chart here for now...

Steve




Wednesday, August 12, 2009

Morning Webinar

For those of you attending the morning webinars, Steve didn't record this morning's session. He has decided to give you an additional session on the Monday following the last scheduled webinar, so although we don't have access to today's information, we will have another opportunity to learn.

Recognition goes to Dick in this afternoon's advanced training webinar--great trade today!

Tuesday, August 11, 2009

Avoid Overtrading

Steve has mentioned this before and reiterated it in yesterday's afternoon webinar. Overtrading in the middle of the day during choppy markets, or during low volume periods, will hurt your profits. (See my post from yesterday--I had to get back in the market during the late afternoon in order to make back what I gave up in two bad trades during the chop.)

Here are the 4 trades from this morning's session in the S&P 500 e-minis.






Net Profit
# Type Date/Time Symbol Price Cum Net Prof






1 Buy 8/11/2009 8:33 ESU09 $1,000.75 $101.00

Sell 8/11/2009 8:35 ESU09 $1,001.00
2 Sell 8/11/2009 8:38 ESU09 $1,000.50 $476.00

Buy 8/11/2009 8:40 ESU09 $999.50
3 Sell 8/11/2009 8:44 ESU09 $998.75 $851.00

Buy 8/11/2009 8:48 ESU09 $997.00
4 Sell 8/11/2009 9:00 ESU09 $996.25 $351.00

Buy 8/11/2009 9:01 ESU09 $995.50





$1,779.00

Were there more trades I could have taken? Probably one or two; but it's much more enjoyable and profitable to be patient, wait out the midday chop, then take a look at what may be setting up in the afternoon session.

After the market close:

I didn't take any other trades today. Steve and I spent some time discussing the webinars and video we are putting together, then I got busy shooting a couple of new airsoft guns with my 11-year-old son and just didn't spend much time watching the market. (By the way, having a friendly impromptu airsoft battle with a bunch of the neighborhood kids is a great way to have fun and bond with your own kids.)

There were a couple of trades I might have taken, but I missed them entirely or took a look at the market after the move was well underway. I refused to chase profits; I've done that one too many times before.

I'd rather walk away with my gains and wait until the session tomorrow morning, so I traded a total of only 35 minutes this morning, then spent a few minutes glancing at the market this afternoon. About 3-1/2 to 4 points in less than an hour of trading today--I really enjoy using Steve's methods.

I will not be posting my trades every day. I don't day trade every day. But I promise that when I do choose to post them, I will post the good, the bad and the ugly--winners and losers.
No holding back, because the point is to help everyone learn something from the experience.

The lessons from yesterday and today?

1. Steer clear of midday choppiness.

2. Avoid overtrading.

3. Be patient.
4. Have fun!


Monday, August 10, 2009

Today's Trades

Steve suggested I post the trades I did in the S&P 500 e-mini contracts today. You will notice that I was up about 3 points in the morning, then got impatient and gave it away during the light volume chop. In two trades I was stopped out with a 1-1/2 point loss each time.

I made it up in the afternoon to end the day up more than 6 points net of commissions. This is a report you can generate in TradeStation. If you want assistance finding and generating it, send Steve the request via email and he will cover it in the next webinar.






Net Profit &
# Type Date/Time Symbol Price Cum Net Prof






1 Sell 8/10/2009 8:47 ESU09 $1,004.75 $726.00

Buy 8/10/2009 8:48 ESU09 $1,003.25
2 Buy 8/10/2009 8:52 ESU09 $1,004.75 $351.00

Sell 8/10/2009 8:56 ESU09 $1,005.50
3 Sell 8/10/2009 9:00 ESU09 $1,004.50 $226.00

Buy 8/10/2009 9:00 ESU09 $1,004.00
4 Buy 8/10/2009 9:22 ESU09 $1,004.75 $226.00

Sell 8/10/2009 9:25 ESU09 $1,005.25
5 Sell 8/10/2009 9:33 ESU09 $1,006.25 $101.00

Buy 8/10/2009 9:37 ESU09 $1,006.00
6 Sell 8/10/2009 9:56 ESU09 $1,005.75 ($774.00)

Buy 8/10/2009 10:04 ESU09 $1,007.25
7 Buy 8/10/2009 10:04 ESU09 $1,007.25 ($774.00)

Sell 8/10/2009 10:18 ESU09 $1,005.75
8 Sell 8/10/2009 10:18 ESU09 $1,005.75 $1,226.00

Buy 8/10/2009 11:30 ESU09 $1,003.25
9 Sell 8/10/2009 12:56 ESU09 $1,001.50 $1,101.00

Buy 8/10/2009 13:22 ESU09 $999.25
10 Buy 8/10/2009 13:56 ESU09 $1,001.50 $726.00

Sell 8/10/2009 14:03 ESU09 $1,003.00





$3,135.00