The Times They Are A Changin'

At The Market Forecast we advocate and teach that any person who is educated and committed to trading properly with the right information can generate market-beating results. Unfortunately, most of the investing world has simply taught individual investors to settle for whatever results a professional money manager gives them. Worse, "buy-and-hold" investing has left many in financial ruins during the most recent bear market.

When the S&P 500 loses money over a 10-year timeframe, it's time to question old assumptions. A long-time advocate of buy-and-hold investing, The Motley Fool's Tom Gardner recently wrote:

The Motley Fool has been associated with long-term, buy-and-hold investing since our founding in 1993. And as co-founder and CEO, I'm writing to say that, for many people, long-term investing simply doesn't work. You read that right. Many investors today are wrong to anchor their stocks to an average holding period of three to five years or more.

from "Long-Term Investing Doesn't Work" June 5, 2009

And over at the Wall Street Journal, these two items describe the changes shaping the investor world:

The ups and downs of the market are prompting more retail investors to abandon buy-and-hold strategies in favor of opportunistic trading.

"The problem I have with the buy-and-hold strategy is that it's a bull-market strategy," says Matthew Tuttle, a financial advisor in Stamford, Connecticut. "In the bust, you give all your profits back."

from "More Investors Say Bye-Bye to Buy-and-Hold" April 8, 2009

Buffeted by steep declines in stocks, many bonds, commodities and real estate, many advisers are questioning their faith in long-standing investment principles.

Two prominent networks of financial advisors--the National Association of Personal Financial Advisors and the Financial Planning Association--are sponsoring panels at conferences this year on the subject of rethinking conventional approaches to investing and building client portfolios.

"There's a seismic change in the market," says Will Hepburn, president of the National Association of Active Investment Managers. "The people who were buy-and-hold-oriented lost a lot of money, and they don't want to do it again."

from "Advisers Ditch 'Buy and Hold' For New Tactics" April 29, 2009

Welcome from Steve

Welcome to our brand new blog!

Technology marches on, and in an effort to keep pace with it (though no twitter yet - I do really trade, and prefer a non-digital life as well), and to keep everyone who may or may not yet be members of our website http://www.themarketforecast.com/ informed, I plan on posting some great stuff that may not fit perfectly into all that we provide on our member site.

We'll be joined here by Chuck Warner, a friend and new contributor who comes with a wealth of background and experience in the markets. He loves what we're doing and will make a great addition to our editorial team.

First, let me provide a link I use all the time. It adds some very important perspective into underlying market conditions that most investors never consider. Those who have been members on our site for some time, and those who have attended any of my seminars or webinars know this one well: http://stockcharts.com/symsearch/index.html?$

It is a very long list, but here are some of my favorites: $SPXA50R, $SPXHILO, $NYHL

As an example, here is the $SPXHILO showing how in both bull and bear, the number of new highs and lows channel up or down, and why when looking at the far right side of the graph (current), you might not be so quick to call the bear market over for 2009!

Note, we are only reaching the top of that downward channel right now, and once we have reached it again, a reversal could catch a lot of investors by surprise.

Best of trades,
Steve